Daniele Orner
Oct 14, 2023
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Gemini created these notes. They can contain errors so should be double-checked. How Gemini takes notes
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Self Guided “Forecasting” Activity
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Self Guided Belief Calibration Activity (For Social Use)
Goals
Disclaimer
How To Participate
Instructions:
Key Guidelines:
Background & Additional Information
Why formally state beliefs?
Why should we measure the calibration of our beliefs?
How can we measure the calibration of our beliefs?
Calibration Plots
Calibration Metric 1
Calibration Metric 2
Other Metrics
What about Brier score?
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Self Guided “Forecasting” Activity
