Debugging Democracy: How Polarisation and Deepfakes Manufacture Reality; The Invisible Hands Dismantling Democracy = #TruthDecay
This is a very serious edition of #FixTheWorld or #GiveUp newsletter no. 33
Disinformation and polarization imperil democracy. But we can write a new chapter celebrating reason, ethics and shared hopes.
Hope it raises some key issues and points that you might agree with (or not), feel free to share it with others, and do comment below.
I'm not a political scientist but a concerned global citizen.
Welcome to FixTheWorld.4good.space
World's democracies are in peril, but the enemy is not what you might think.
Who is the real enemy?
Across the world, political divides are growing, trust in leaders is declining, and ordinary citizens feel unheard. Meanwhile, advances in technology allow the powerful to manipulate media and spread disinformation at unprecedented scales.
Recent events have illuminated the stark polarisation between elites and the marginalized. Social media echo chambers already exacerbate these societal rifts. But deepfake technology poses an even more insidious threat, making it impossible to discern truth from fiction.
We see this happening now in America. But make no mistake, the combination of polarization and deepfakes jeopardizes democracy worldwide.
The hour is late, but not too late. By coming together with wisdom, courage, and compassion, we can reinforce democracy's eroding pillars of truth, reason, and trust.
Governments must regulate technology firms to increase accountability and transparency. Schools need to prioritize critical thinking and media literacy. Platforms should design algorithms that bring out humanity's better angels, not darker impulses. And citizens must demand leaders who unite rather than divide.
The threats are complex, but so is human nature, with its boundless potential for good. If we work hand in hand, heart to heart, evidence shows we can reduce polarization, counter disinformation, and renew faith in democracy.
But bold action is needed now. The time for change is at hand. History is calling each of us to play our part. Together, let us answer the call.
Rights decay not from hostile ideologies, but the corrosive effects of polarisation and confirmation bias.
The Polarisation Peril (US as an example)
Political scientists have documented a steady rise in congressional polarization over the past several decades. Using legislative voting data, researchers find that moderates in both parties have vanished in Congress, leaving little overlap in policy priorities across the aisles. For example, in the 1990s over 50 members of Congress regularly crossed party lines in their voting; today, that number is down to around 5.
However, among the general public, polls continue to find more nuanced ideological beliefs and significant policy agreement between Republican and Democratic voters on issues like jobs, healthcare and education. This suggests that party elites and activists are driving much of the polarization. Their incentives, like the need to turn out more ideological bases in primary contests, lead to extremes getting elected.
Still, affective polarization – animosity toward the opposing party based on social identity – has risen among ordinary Americans too since the 1980s. Surveys show Democrats and Republicans now intensely distrust and dislike each other. Social sorting, geographic clustering and partisan media likely contribute to this trend. Citizens now inhabit separate information ecosystems that reinforce biases.
The recent opposition by Rep. Matt Gaetz and other hardliners to Kevin McCarthy’s bid for House Speaker illustrates this elite polarization. Despite McCarthy’s extensive concessions, they opposed his candidacy largely on personal and ideological grounds, not substantive policy disagreements. Their grandstanding seems aimed at inflaming the Republican base, not legislating or governing.
When partisan identity overtakes reason, democracy suffers. Compromise and restraint become impossible. Public policy devolves into cultural warfare. Facts are cherry-picked to fit agendas, and conspiracy theories spread. Ultimately, constitutional checks and balances fail as institutions like Congress become dysfunctional.
Evidence shows that affective polarization alone does not directly cause greater support for political violence or anti-democratic attitudes. Specific rhetoric from party leaders suggesting democracy itself is threatened is more dangerous. Still, reducing animosity can help create conditions for cooperation.
Potential solutions include electoral reforms to reduce winner-take-all systems, regulating social media algorithms that drive outrage, expanding congressional exchange programs to humanize the opposing party, and encouraging leaders to temper extreme language casting opponents as evil. Most importantly, citizens can demand politicians focus on solving problems rather than partisan feuds.
The Deepfake Dystopia?
Parallel to rising polarization, artificial intelligence has reached the point where average users can readily generate false but convincing images, audio and video – so-called deepfakes. While often associated with celebrity porn or funny internet clips, deepfakes pose a nightmare scenario for democracy.
Imagine viral fake videos showing a member of Congress accepting a suitcase of cash, a presidential candidate using a racial slur, or a soldier massacring civilians overseas. Even if disproven, such manipulated media could profoundly shape public opinion, whip up partisan outrage, and trigger violence.
During war and political unrest, deepfakes could falsify orders from commanders, show military defeats that didn't happen, or put words in the mouths of foreign adversaries to justify intervention. Trust in any information would decline sharply.
The threat extends beyond deliberate disinformation. As deepfake technology proliferates, no video or audio can be assumed real. Every gaffe, racist rant or incriminating statement would be doubted – including authentic ones. The possibility of fakery taints everything while empowering the unscrupulous.
Alarmingly, deepfake technology is advancing exponentially faster than solutions. YouTube star MrBeast recently warned fans about a deepfake ad featuring him promoting a fake iPhone 15 giveaway.
Using realistic simulation of his voice and likeness, the fraudulent ad directed viewers to a phishing link. This follows a deepfake video that used AI to simulate actor Tom Hanks promoting a non-existent dental plan in order to capitalize on his celebrity.
As these examples show, AI can already imitate prominent people with striking realism. Soon it will be feasible to fabricate any individual (especially if you have trained any AI models using 3rd party services!).
These developments make clear that the deepfake threat is no longer science fiction but an urgent real-world danger.
Technical detection of deepfakes remains inconsistent and imperfect. Studies consistently show that only focusing citizens on visual technical aspects of videos has limited success. Analysis of social and contextual cues is more reliable but rarely used.
What can be done?
Solutions require massive investment in media literacy so citizens reflexively question veracity. Social platforms must authenticate media origin and remove verified fakes. Impartial fact-checking groups need support for real-time deepfake debunking. New laws should cover malicious deepfakes that harm people’s lives and reputations.
Policymakers face a dilemma regarding deepfakes. Intelligence agencies will be tempted to use them in psychological operations against foreign threats. However, the proliferation and normalization of deepfakes – even among democratic states – fatally undermines global information integrity. The harm likely outweighs any tactical benefit.
By treating deepfakes with gravity and establishing oversight, democratic governments can balance security interests with ethics and transparency. The alternative is an information dystopia where truth disappears – crippling democracy, diplomacy, commerce, science and personal relationships.
Renewing Reason
The post-truth trends of polarization and manipulated media gain force from social dynamics like declining community ties, spiritual emptiness, economic stress, and loss of confidence in institutions. Renewing reason and evidence-based politics requires reforms that speak to citizens’ values and aspirations for just, honest and compassionate governance.
The death of democracy comes not by firing squad, but the gradual normalization of lies, corruption and authoritarianism.
Appeals to fear and partisan identity can be replaced with narratives of shared hope and democratic improvement. Politicians who inflame divides with demagoguery must face electoral defeat. Leaders willing to compromise and acknowledge nuance should be lifted up.
Alongside institutional reforms, citizens themselves must nurture a renewed commitment to truth, compassion and democratic values that elevate human dignity over tribalism. This begins in everyday life by upholding honesty, skepticism of unchecked claims, and good faith discourse over snap judgments.
Democracy’s survival is not guaranteed. But if citizens demand leaders and platforms that appeal to humanity’s better angels over its darkest impulses, truth can prevail over tribalism and manipulation. With wisdom and moral courage, the threats of polarisation and deepfakes can be overcome 🤞.
The Road Ahead
Concrete steps must be taken by both institutions and individuals to counter polarisation and deepfake disinformation. Here are some evidence-based recommendations:
Reform winner-take-all electoral systems through initiatives like ranked choice voting to reduce party extremism like Gerrymandering.
Build cross-partisan relationships and understanding through respectful dialogues focused on shared problems. (like civilised people?)
Prioritise anti-polarization education teaching critical thinking, media literacy, and valuing diversity.
Support impartial fact-checking and deepfake detection organizations that rapidly counter falsehoods and verify media provenance.
Develop technological tools for authenticating the source and chain of custody of digital media. (Great opportunity!)
Enact laws making malicious deepfakes a criminal offense when used to harm people. China already banned not labelled deepfakes Jan2023, gov.announcement in Chinese.
Regulate social platforms to reduce inflammatory misinformation while protecting free expression. (sadly given X-rated X now, far-right, extreme everything in social media has become the norm! good example is that there is still no comeuppance for Facebook who helped put trump in power!)
Encourage traditional media to provide factual, issues-based political coverage over spectacle.
Reject narratives portraying fellow citizens as evil enemies; seek shared hopes and values.
Vote out politicians who deliberately deceive and divide for power.
Americans and especially the rest of the world cannot take democracy for granted.
Polarisation and deepfakes erode its foundations of truth, reason and trust. But through moral courage, wisdom and working together, citizens can rejuvenate faith in democracy.
The threats are real, but greater still is the power of informed citizens striving together.
If X (previously twitter) and Facebook (both I do not use much now), are still frequent by millions/billions, we must have a solution to re-engage and reach out to those who might take the easy way out (like taking the sugary drink).. have we lost the war? Should we #GiveUP now?
I hope not, can we start a movement to get people to start just asking one question, what can we #Fix now? in this instance, just get through the crash courses on how to tell disinformation & deepfakes in the first instance.
subscribe to this newsletter and pass on if you agree!
good luck to us all!
References
#MustWatch, and pass on great crash course on how to navigate dis-information and deepfakes
Polarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States: What the Research Says RACHEL KLEINFELD 05Sept. 2023 on Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on PDF
Deepfakes and scientific knowledge dissemination, Christopher Doss, 18Aug2023
Déjà vu? Polarization and Endangered Democracies in the 21st Century, 26Feb2018